There’s nothing wrong with hoping for the best from your investments — it’s human nature. However, you could encounter serious long-term cash flow problems if you base financial plans for the future on unrealistic assumptions. According to an August 2004 Gallup poll, nearly one third of 800 investors surveyed expected to generate profits of 10% or more in their portfolios during the next year. How does that anticipated return compare with actual historical returns? Based on data from Standard & Poor’s and the Federal Reserve, from 1926 to 2003, a hypothetical portfolio divided equally among stocks, bonds and cash would have had an average total return of 7.3% annually*. While the composition of your portfolio may be different from the portfolio in this example, it is important to maintain realistic expectations in order to have the best chance at reaching your goals. Although past performance is no guarantee of future results, familiarize yourself with the historical performance of appropriate investment indexes —or appropriate benchmarks — and use their average long-term returns to help maintain realistic expectations for your own investment returns.
Mistake #2: Chasing “hot” investments and overtrading.
Investors tend to convince themselves that recent investment performance represents the future. The problem with chasing today’s winning stocks or mutual funds is that by the time you hear about the latest “hot” performers, you may have already missed out on all or most of the opportunity to participate in that price appreciation. Chasing past winners is closely correlated with another potential investment mistake — overtrading. Shuffling your investments too often increases the chance you’ll buy high and sell low — a worst-case scenario for investment success. Overtrading also generates more transaction costs and fees that cut into investment gains. One potential solution: work with a financial advisor. An experienced professional may be able to help you stay focused on your goals and avoid the urge to trade frequently. In fact, studies have found that investors who work with a financial advisor tend to hold on to their investments longer and realize better returns than do-it-yourselfers.