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The pattern tells me when we reach a pivot point (significant price); the indicators give their best intelligence on the disposition of the trader's momentum and attitude. That lets me set up legitimate criteria to make a trade. If /Then for the upside and If/Then for the down side. Armed with all that, I sit back and let the Stock / Index do what it will do. The key traders engage the masses and the spark either lights a fire or it doesn't. I can't know for sure what they will do and while I could say "my indicators suggest ...so I am going in", is would be a glorified guess that screams "I don't know how to wait for the stock to tell me it's time. I will trust the indicator that seems to be right a lot of the time and cross my fingers". I'll tell a secret, the Key Traders, and the Pros that will follow them, are not looking at range bands, moving averages and overbought /over sold indicators. Their actions are making those indicators say what it says. They are doing a delicate dance with the real momentum of the market, the masses. They do not want to go against the public sentiment. They want to test / read that sentiment and drive the leading edge of the next cycle of the pattern.

I love this stuff! I have many maxims that I use to help keep perspective. "The stock will never listen to you, but it will speak if you learn to listen", "Find the pattern and play it till it breaks", " If there is no pattern, there is no trade".

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Not all stocks and or indexes have easy patterns to follow but where there is big profit potential, there will be a pattern. Just because you can't see it, does not mean it is not there.

The NASDAQ price action over the last year is a very beautiful house and that pile of wood did not land that way by random action. While some Technical indicators are often accurate at predicting price action, the market is right ALL the TIME! Find the Pattern and play it till it breaks.

PS. It takes a while for me to write an article like this. I came back to finish the editing and it is now 4 hours into the market. You gotta' see this…

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  • So, where does it go from here? I don't know but it is obvious to me that the key traders know exactly where they are. They also have targets and all I have to do is find the up and down targets and when they take off I will follow. Remember, you don't have to guess, "Find the pattern… it will speak to you".
  • Ryan Litchfield with Better Trades.
  • I am chartist and a technical trader. I believe that the first line of analysis is to find patterns. Line drawing and straight line analysis is the standard. It has been and continues to be the base line tool. Moving averages and range bands are more recent developments and are observatory. Straight line charting has modeled and been used to define patterns and set targets for an awfully long time, and I believe that you can't throw a pile of lumber of a cliff and have it land in the shape of a house. If it looks like a house, some one has manipulating the lumber.

I want to show you a study that is remarkable in that it shows obvious pattern trading but not in a single stock rather an entire index, in this case the NASDAQ. The slides here are chronologically sequential and can not be put together after the fact to make a point. They were annotated and posted as they happened and were charted in my Trader's Talk Live training sessions. I have a group of students who subscribe to spend several hours per week charting and being trained to read and trade off chart patterns. What you will see is the break of a trend and the steps it takes to morph into a new trend.

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  • Note that the lines were drawn before the pattern fully developed, demonstrating that the pattern was recognized and laid out before the price played into the lines. Now the pattern could have broken at any time. The lines did not dictate what the stock / Index could or could not do. Rather the lines showed the pattern and the targets that would be reached if the pattern continued. Each pivot point that was reached gave an opportunity to trade off the price reaction to a critical decision point.

Feb 23rd the index dropped to recent support rally with the up trend line just below. A lower top also was formed. We identified the support and noted that the long term line was just below.