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In addition to a well thought out Investment Plan, successful Equity investing requires a feel for what is going on in the real world that we all refer to as "The Market". To most investors, the DJIA provides all of the information they think they need, and they worship it mindlessly, thinking that this time tattered average has mystical predictive and analytic powers far beyond the scope of any other market number. A cursory review of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Issue Breadth figures (93% of the Dow stocks are traded there) clearly shows how the Dow has neither been prescient nor historically accurate with regard to broad market movements for the past eight years. Additionally, this financial icon that investors revere as the ultimate "Blue Chip" Stock Market Indicator has lost its luster, with less than half its members achieving S & P ratings of A or better, and 20% of the issues ranked below Investment Grade.
Is the 120-year-old DJIA impotent? No, it's certainly helpful for Peak-to-Peak analysis right now, for example, to see if your Large Cap only Equity Portfolio is as high as it was six years ago. But it's based upon a seriously flawed Buy and Hold investment strategy and universally used as a market barometer, when its original role was as an economic indicator. This is not just semantics. It's Wall Street's rendition of "The Emperor's New Clothes". Possibly, a weighted average of investor perceived business prospects for thirty major companies is a viable economic indicator, but leading or lagging? Clearly, there is no conceivable way that any existing average/index can measure the progress of the thousands of individual securities (and Mutual Funds masquerading as individual securities) that, in the real investment world, are "The Market". And is there just "a" Market, when REITs, Index ETFs, Equity CEFs, Income CEFs, and even some Preferreds are all mixed together in such a way that most brokerage firm statements can't quite distinguish one from the other? Investors are dealing with multiple markets of different types. Markets that don't follow the same rules or respond to the same changes in the same ways. The Dow is dead, long live reality.